How the Platinum Risk Index is built
A single number, 1–10, for the mood of the platinum market — measured, not asserted. Here is exactly how, and where it stops.
1What the number means
The index runs from 1 to 10. 1 is maximum bearish consensus, 5.5 is balanced, 10 is maximum bullish consensus. It is a reading of sentiment and news flow — the weight of what the world is publishing about platinum and the forces that drive it — not a price target and not a recommendation.
2Sources
Every minute the engine reads from hundreds of free, open feeds: central banks (the Fed, ECB, Bank of England), the major wires and financial press, trade and industry bodies, and Google News in dozens of languages across more than 40 countries. Non-English coverage is read in its original language, not a lossy translation. High-authority sources (a central-bank statement) carry more weight than an aggregator rewrite; that trust weighting is explicit.
3Scoring — two layers
Each story is scored for its implication for the platinum price on a scale from −1 (bearish) to +1 (bullish). A fast deterministic lexicon scores every item; a language model then re-reads the most impactful and novel items for a proper, context-aware judgement — including second-order effects a keyword filter misses. The model's read supersedes the lexicon's where they differ.
4Transmission channels
Most news that moves platinum never mentions platinum. A hawkish central bank, a supply disruption, a stronger dollar — each reaches the price through a channel. Every story is classified into a channel and scored within it, and each channel has a beta that translates its signal into a platinum view. The channels for platinum are chosen for platinum specifically:
- Autocatalyst demand — Biggest driver: exhaust catalysts. Emissions rules lift it; EVs (no catalyst) erode it.
- Mine & refinery supply — South Africa ~70% of output, plus Russia. Power cuts, strikes and outages spike price.
- Platinum–palladium substitution — When palladium is dear, automakers switch to platinum — bullish platinum.
- Hydrogen & fuel cells — Fuel cells and electrolysers need platinum. The structural future-demand story.
- Investment & ETF flows — PPLT/physical ETF holdings, coins, WPIC deficit data, positioning.
- Jewellery demand — China and India platinum jewellery, price-elastic vs gold.
- Risk appetite / cycle — Platinum is PRO-cyclical: risk-on and strong manufacturing lift industrial demand.
- US dollar — Priced in USD; a stronger dollar weighs, but less than for gold — demand dominates.
- Real yields — A weaker safe-haven than gold, so the rates channel bites less.
- Geopolitical & Russia risk — Russia is a major supplier; sanctions and conflict are a supply-risk premium.
- Inflation — A mild real-asset hedge, secondary to the industrial cycle.
- Precious-metal beta (gold) — Platinum partly tracks gold as a precious metal, especially on macro days.
- Direct platinum commentary — Explicit platinum price calls, bank targets, technical breaks, WPIC.
5From stories to one number
Each scored story contributes a weight of source-trust × confidence × intensity × recency. A story's influence halves every 18 hours, so the index reflects the live news flow rather than stale headlines. The weighted average of all views becomes the raw reading, mapped onto the 1–10 scale. Crucially, sparse evidence is shrunk toward neutral — three headlines cannot produce a confident 9.
6Coverage — read this before you trust a reading
7Correlations, not silos
Platinum is not measured in isolation. The Daily Report tracks its live correlations — over 30, 90 and 365 days, with significance flags — against the dollar, real yields, the other precious metals, oil, equities and more, and highlights where a relationship is tightening or loosening. Where a correlated asset is itself an Evander Signal index, you can follow the number straight to it.
8What this is not
- It is not a price forecast. It measures the news and the mood, which is a different thing from where the price goes.
- It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
- Correlation is not causation, and a young correlation on a small sample is flagged as such rather than dressed up.
- The paper-trading desk is a simulation — real prices, no real money — built so the signal can be judged in the open.